Saturday, 8 May 2010

Brown, Cameron and Clegg - fill the stage with flags!

You didn't think I wasn't going to comment on the UK's General Election now, did you?

So, we got a hung parliament. No surprise there then! It's been predicted for weeks especially as the Conservatives made little or no effort to sway the voters who turned to Mrs Thatcher in the eighties and who returned to the Labour fold in the nineties. As a consequence, Labour managed to hold it's own quite well, given the economic abyss that is now staring the Brits in the face. When all's said and done, Margaret Thatcher has probably done more to undermine support for a political party in the long term that any individual over the last 100 years. Given the see-saw nature of the British electoral system, the Tories should have romped it!

So what next? The UK simply joins Europe! Nearly every country in Europe has a minority or coalition Government. Only France, Greece and I think Italy have parliamentary majorities for a single party and they scarce hold up any kudos for a 'single' party mandate to govern. Especially Greece! The only reason that the Brits are so frightened of the notion is that, outside wartime, the only time they tried it was in 1974 and it collapsed and ushered in the 5 years of the Callaghan government and the so-called 'winter of discontent' and thence Margaret Thatcher.

Now, quite clearly, the Lib Dems hold the balance of power, although in the case of Gordon Brown and the Labour Party the issue is complicated because they would need, probably, the nationalist parties in addition to the Lib Dems to actually get a working majority and, as a consequence, brokering a deal will be much trickier. Cameron's job is much easier; he only has to get one 'bloc' on side not four (or more).

However, irrespective of who forms a Government, it raises the ugly spectre of a deal done behind closed doors and the voters don't get what they asked for. It's all very well pundits choosing to see the electorate as one amorphous mass but it isn't like that. The electorate have not voted for a change in the system (except those who voted Lib Dem). The electorate are composed of individual voters and whatever their motivation for voting the way they did, and the motivations are many, each individual voted for the party that the deemed would best serve their interest; or in the case of the altruistic, society's interests.

Amidst all the talk of 'National Interest' (and to quote Ricky Tomlinson, 'My ARSE!'), the leaders of both the main political parties are acting out of pure self interest. They both know the Lib Dems want proportional representation (PR), again out of self interest, not because it is 'fairer', and they both know that will almost certainly stymie the possibility of a majority government for either of the two main parties. All Cameron and Brown can do now is to effect some kind of 'damage limitation' which postpones the inevitable; the Lib Dems get too many votes (around 20-25% most times). Once they have any kind of influence, they will seek to change the system in such a way as to favour themselves and in effect become the power brokers in successive goverments. To me, that sounds inherently dangerous and inherently undemocratic.

While the system as it stands today can scarcely be described as fair, a party which polls around a quarter of the votes only secures representation in about 7.5% of the seats in the commons, would proportional representation be any fairer? After all, if talks break down between the Conservative and the Lib Dems, the UK could still find itself with ostensibly a Labour Government which the electorate, it would seem to me, don't want; at least they don't want a Government led by Gordon Brown! The real danger of PR, to my eyes, is that nothing is overt and everything is covert! It's how deals are done; after the event, not before! And not subject to the wishes of the electorate.

I'm happy for PR to work if everybody is up front on 'coalitions' before the election so voters can see what effect their vote may have on the manifestos of each party, how much they will be 'watered down', but a system which allies parties 'post hoc' is, I think, less fair than the one the Brits have now!

One of the main 'problems' the Brits have is that, unlike most 'Western-style' democracies, they do not have an elected President, they have a constitutional monarchy. This, to my mind, makes a fundamental difference to the way in which PR might work. If you elect a President, you are in effect electing that President's programme. It might be watered down by a senate or some kind of 'Parliamentary body' but 'Presidential Veto' usually puts paid to any 'rebellion' :) However the Brits have a system whereby the electorate as a whole to do not elect the leader, the Prime Minister, they elect 'party candidates', senators, deputes etc but by and large, irrespective of might be said, the Prime Minister effectively commands the power of a President; it is. after all. a 'constitutional' monarchy. The Queen, or King, has the power of veto, he or she doesn't sign the bill, but to exercise it in 99.99% of cases would destroy the Monarchy.

As long as the current system remains, and there are sound reasons in support of a constitutional monarchy, PR would be less fair, involve machinations on a truly Machiavellian level and would do the British people no good in even the medium term.

In the end, the last people you should vote for in an election are the people that are standing. By the very act of standing, they disqualify themselves as being fit to run a country, a society. Those who don't stand, seek to make a difference to society by persuasion, by dialogue, by discussion. Those who stand, seek to impose their will, their decisions, hopefully by being the largest 'bloc', and thereby in a position to do so.

All of this does not take into account that value of the 'local Member of Parliament' which the Brits have an enormous affinity for. No one can doubt the value of this and the sincerity of what lies behind it, however these people, whether they like it or no, are at the mercy of their party! They will ultimately 'toe the line' whether in Westminster or elsewhere. To do otherwise would risk 'deselection'!

Spare a thought, and a prayer if that is your way, for Meredith Kercher; brutally murdered. Maybe one day, I will understand human beings, what makes you do the things that you do, believe what you believe; but I very much doubt it. A penguin's brain is not large enough to encompass all that you have done; and sadly all that you will do!

2 comments:

  1. The position of the Nick Clegg reminds me of the dilemma the Modem ( Democrat Movement in France) faced during the second round of the french presidential elections. The chief of the party decided to join the socialist party, so to support the socialist candidate. Well, the Modem MPs supported the right wing candidate (Sarkozy). Now the Modem party has imploded and is not considered as an alternative to other political parties anymore." Mr Clegg, watch where you are stepping in to"

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  2. The pursuit of power has a 'very strong appeal'. The Lib Dems have known for 40 years (ever since Jeremy Thorpe tried to 'get into bed' with Ted Heath :) that their only hope of 'power' was to ally themselves to one of the main political parties.

    While they might see themselves as more closely allied with the labour party, that is much riskier, politically, than an alliance with the Tories today.

    Whatever they do, they run the risk of abject failure and the possible dissolution of the party as a political force. Lib Dems could well feel that they have been betrayed - as many do even now!

    But like I say 'power' has a very strong appeal and Clegg obviously thinks that the risk is worth it. For his sake, I hope that getting into bed with Cameron OR Brown doesn't end up with the Libs Dems getting the clap-like equivalent of MRSA!

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